Re(2): Swinger Bet?

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Happy Birthday, sedjld (Monday) Re(2): Swinger Bet?
Posted on March 30, 2026 at 02:10:36 PM by Craig G

Yes. The problem with roll your own is the barrier to entry - $36.
Also, it's ugly to look at the wagering allocation. Here's an example with 1 and 6 as keys, using the base probabilities for the trifectas.

TRI RATIO PROB_PCT
126 127 0.00786
216 127 0.00786
614 156 0.00643
615 158 0.00632
316 160 0.00625
163 162 0.00616
631 166 0.00604
162 177 0.00563
261 177 0.00563
816 182 0.00550
641 186 0.00537
136 208 0.00482
416 229 0.00436
361 235 0.00425
164 239 0.00418
716 278 0.00359
613 323 0.00310
186 324 0.00309
516 393 0.00255
861 403 0.00248
612 454 0.00220
621 454 0.00220
146 490 0.00204
651 516 0.00194
461 538 0.00186
617 599 0.00167
165 681 0.00147
618 697 0.00144
176 731 0.00137
168 853 0.00117
561 886 0.00113
761 981 0.00102
156 1104 0.00091
671 1179 0.00085
167 1303 0.00077
681 2612 0.00038

We would be putting an equal amount of money on the horrible combos as we would on the best ones.
Pretty sure that most rational bettors would rather use a tiered wagering structure where if the most likely thing happens, you are very happy. But with this you are hoping to hit with the least likely outcome, ass-backwards IMO. And we must consider that with today's small pools, those extremely unlikely cases usually don't pay anywhere near what you are hoping when they do hit.

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