Reconciliation time
Posted on March 8, 2026 at 10:53:23 AM by Craig G
I gave those earlier figures based on the Secret Sauce formula, or "Trust me, bro". So now we would like to do better and use a technique that is tranparent and reproducible by others - those Adjusted Campeonato Points (ACP).
So here is the plan. We evaluate front court doubles performance based on ACP. And we exclude their pairings with the weakest 3 backs based on a requirement of minimum competence. Which is not to denigrate the lower group. It's just to classify them as 'not there yet'.
However, before excluding those pairings, we can't help but be curious about them. Owing to random assignments, how often did each front get paired with that group?
Player tot dbls bottom 3 percent
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Johan 236 60 25.40%
Libois 308 77 25.00%
Garcia 320 79 24.70%
Txanika 322 78 24.20%
Javier 324 77 23.80%
Amets 336 79 23.50%
Aaron 317 73 23.00%
Celaya 275 61 22.20%
Tambour 311 61 19.60%
Bixente 324 57 17.60%
Olharan 293 45 15.40%
We can see a significant disparity. This might undermine the validity of evaluating performance solely on overall WPS records.
Let's look at how the fronts did with this group using our ACPs.
Player tot dbls bottom 3 percent ACO tot ACP per game
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Johan 236 60 25.40% 92.7 1.545
Olharan 293 45 15.40% 53.7 1.193
Txanika 322 78 24.20% 77.4 0.992
Tambour 311 61 19.60% 60.3 0.989
Libois 308 77 25.00% 57.6 0.748
Bixente 324 57 17.60% 42 0.737
Javier 324 77 23.80% 48.7 0.632
Garcia 320 79 24.70% 45.2 0.572
Celaya 275 61 22.20% 27.2 0.446
Amets 336 79 23.50% 19.1 0.242
Since average campeonato points work out to 5 + 3 + 1 per 8 games, then the baseline for this is 1.125 acp per game. Not surprisingly, only Johan can prevail with these partners. But Txanika is right up there.
So now we are ready to look at the fronts exclusively with our more competent group.
Johan 236 174 73.70% 326.1 1.874
Garcia 320 240 75.00% 388.2 1.618
Aaron 317 243 76.70% 386.3 1.59
Tambour 311 249 80.10% 393.9 1.582
Olharan 293 246 84.00% 380.3 1.546
Bixente 324 265 81.80% 335.9 1.268
Txanika 322 244 75.80% 309.4 1.268
Libois 308 230 74.70% 283.6 1.233
Javier 324 247 76.20% 208.5 0.844
Amets 336 255 75.90% 203.6 0.798
Celaya 275 212 77.10% 164.6 0.776
Quite a difference. This undermines my secret sauce figs, to say the least. After thinking it over I realized that the SS figs were mostly the last half of the meet. So let's cut the season in half and run this again only for the finish.
Johan 102 74 72.50% 130.7 1.766
Aaron 149 116 77.90% 192 1.655
Txanika 157 122 77.70% 195.7 1.604
Tambour 145 121 83.40% 178.8 1.478
Olharan 145 126 86.90% 181.5 1.44
Garcia 152 119 78.30% 165.3 1.389
Libois 149 111 74.50% 137.1 1.235
Bixente 158 131 82.90% 147.6 1.127
Javier 153 116 75.80% 99.2 0.855
Celaya 122 98 80.30% 70.5 0.719
Amets 167 129 77.20% 81.2 0.629
Voila! This appears to bring everything into alignment. Approx match with SS and BigMucho. And bingo! for your statement:
If I recall accurately, Txanika was sluggish in doubles in the first half of this recent season. He must’ve really picked it up.
And... what's up with Aaron?
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