Re(4): Purple Hayes Posted on February 28, 2026 at 11:59:21 AM by Craig G
Cant imagine it’s close to the true odds.
I have to admit that I was caught be surprise by the actual figures.
The standard approach is to ignore serve impact, and assume all participants are equal skill. As done in the 'Pure Trifecta Probabilities' and also the supers. So we would just say 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1 in 16.
Problem with that is that in the real world there is a lot of variance in player skill. Which, in theory would have a significant impact on the freq of consecutive points scored.
Keeping it really simple - no algebra, LOL - we can do something like this:
Assume that the roster is somewhat balanced, and we can create pairs of players such that for every player likely to win 60% of his points, he is matched by a player who wins 40% of his points. Or 55-45, 65-35, like that. So we could make a table like this:
In that extreme case, the average post 8 run-out works out to 1 in 11.22. So I would predict a greater than expected post 8 run-out rate.
However, our assumption of balanced pairs of stronger and weaker players is not working out. The 3 most struggling backs at the bottom are not balanced out by 3 Johans at the top. Not a so-called normal distribution of skill.
Even more important is the serve assumption. A post 8 run-out reqs winning 3 consec serve points. Well, when even an elite - within this group - player like Garcia has serve issues, what does that say about the low end players?
So my model is getting undermined by reality-based factors. So be it.
Bottom line = based on my reckoning, out of 528 spec 7 games this season, we have 33 post 8 run-outs, which - brace yourself - is exactly 1 in 16.
Go figure.
( note: that is so odd that I will probably double check it later) Replies:
Re(5): Purple Hayes - By Ignorant Curious JerkFebruary 28, 2026 at 03:38:09 PM
Tiger's Jai-Alai Chalk Talk
